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Monday, November 30, 2020

Coronavirus latest: China's economic recovery accelerates in November - Financial Times

Total Covid-19 cases

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1,450,282
Updated at 11/30/2020, 2:38:09 PM BST

Lastminute.com agrees to refund customers after regulator intervenes

Kate Beioley

The UK competition watchdog has pushed the holiday booking site Lastminute.com into formally agreeing to refund £7m to customers whose holidays were cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic.

More than 9,000 customers whose breaks were cancelled because of the pandemic are awaiting refunds that total more than £7m, the Competition and Markets Authority said. It means many were left waiting longer than the 14-day legal timeframe for refunds.

The holiday site has agreed formally to pay back the cash by January 31 at the latest, while anyone whose holiday is cancelled by the company on or after December 3 will be paid within 14 days.

The regulator has taken a string of travel operators to task for breaching consumer law during the pandemic, through its Covid-19 taskforce.

In October the watchdog said Virgin Holidays had agreed to pay back £203m in refunds to customers whose breaks were affected by the virus, after it found some clients were waiting 120 days for their money back. The agency has also been investigating unjustifiable price rises, for example of hand sanitiser.

UK house prices rise at fastest rate in 6 years

Valentina Romei in London

UK house prices rose more than expected last month and at the fastest annual rate in six years as buyers rushed to benefit from a property tax reprieve in place until March.

The average price defied expectations to gain 0.8 per cent to £230,000 in November compared with the previous month, the fifth consecutive expansion, Nationwide said on Tuesday.

House prices rose 6.5 per cent in November from the same month a year ago, the fastest pace since January 2015, and swifter than a Reuters poll of 5.5 per cent. The October annual growth rate was 5.8 per cent.

The housing market has experienced a mini-boom since the summer when a stamp duty holiday was introduced in July. The sector was expected to cool down in the autumn as the economy weakened and job losses mounted.

Mortgage approvals rose to the highest level since September 2007 in October, the Bank of England said on Monday.

Horta-Osório to become chairman of Credit Suisse

Oliver Ralph in London

António Horta-Osório is to become chair of Credit Suisse, succeeding Urs Rohner as the Swiss bank deals with the fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

Mr Horta-Osório was previously chief executive of Lloyds, but the bank said on Monday that he would be replaced by HSBC’s Charlie Nunn.

Credit Suisse said on Tuesday that Mr Horta-Osório would start at the bank at the end of April next year.

Mr Rohner said that Mr Horta-Osório was a “highly proven and recognised professional” with an “impressive record of accomplishments”.

Credit Suisse also said on Tuesday that it was facing a $680m fine in the US because of residential mortgage-backed securities issued in 2007.

It has already taken a $300m provision for the fine, and says it has strong grounds for appeal.

Macau gaming revenue decline slows as tourists return

Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong

Gaming revenues in Macau fell at a slower pace in November as mainland Chinese tourists returned to the only legal destination for casino gambling on Chinese soil.

Gaming revenue dropped 70.5 per cent year on year in November to 6.75bn patacas ($842.8m), official figures showed on Tuesday. That was an improvement on the 72.5 per cent fall in October and a 90 per cent drop in September.

Gaming revenues have fallen by 80.5 per cent in the first 11 months of the year thanks to pandemic travel restrictions and social distancing measures in casinos.

Macau has successfully contained coronavirus infections, but it remained cut off from the spending power of mainland Chinese tourists, its crucial market, for months.

The number of visitors from mainland China to the gambling hub has improved in recent months after quarantine requirements were removed for arrivals from neighbouring Guangdong province in a reciprocal agreement.

Visitors to Macau from mainland China rose to more than 500,000 in October, according to the latest figures, up from 412,000 in September. However, that was still well below almost 2m monthly visitors in 2019.

Insurers underestimated cost of pandemic, says Swiss Re chief

Oliver Ralph in London

Insurers failed to anticipate the full economic cost of Covid-19 because they did not foresee how far governments would go to protect their populations, according to the head of reinsurer Swiss Re.

Christian Mumenthaler, chief executive of Swiss Re, said governments had not reacted in the way many of his industry’s models anticipated, an implicit acknowledgment that they had not factored in the possibility of lockdowns.

“The one thing none of us has assumed was . . . the higher weight on human life than we had thought,” Mr Mumenthaler told the Financial Times. “The value of human life got massively higher . . . We hadn’t foreseen that they would close down everything.

“The whole industry will have to review some of these models,” he added.

The pandemic has left insurers facing an unexpected torrent of business interruption claims from companies suffering losses caused by coronavirus lockdowns.

Read more here

Amnesty demands Sri Lanka act on prison overcrowding after Covid fears trigger riot

Amy Kazmin

Amnesty International has urged Sri Lanka to release thousands of prisoners from its overcrowded jails after a deadly protest sparked by the rapid spread of coronavirus through the country’s prison population.

A riot at the Mahara prison is reported to have left at least six people dead and 50 injured after guards fired live rounds into a crowd of prisoners protesting against dangerous overcrowding and the spread of the virus.

Prisoners fear they have been left vulnerable to the pandemic, with insufficient measures to maintain social distancing and inadequate health care facilities for those who fall ill.

In a statement, Amnesty called for a “thorough and impartial investigation” into the incident and the use of live fire. It also urged Sri Lankan authorities to take urgent measures to decongest the prisons in the face of the pandemic.

The rights group said that prisoners incarcerated “solely for the exercise of their human rights” should be freed immediately. It also said that authorities should consider alternatives to custody — such as parole or early release — for prisoners who do not pose a danger to the public.

Sri Lanka has reported fewer than 24,000 coronavirus infections and just 118 fatalities during the pandemic, but the Associated Press reported that more than 1,000 prisoners have been infected.

Mirae wins approval to kill $5.8bn deal for Anbang hotels

James Fontanella-Khan and Sujeet Indap in New York

A US judge on Monday said that South Korean asset manager Mirae had legally terminated a $5.8bn deal with China’s Anbang to buy 15 US luxury hotels, the first ruling in favour of a buyer seeking to pull out of a transaction partly as a result of coronavirus.

Judge Travis Laster said that Anbang had made extensive changes during the pandemic to the way it ran its hotels, which include New York’s JW Marriott Essex House and San Francisco’s Westin St Francis, moves that were in breach of the merger agreement.

The ruling made by the court in Delaware, where most publicly traded US companies are legally registered, could become an important precedent as buyers seek ways out of deals that were agreed at much higher valuations before the Covid-19 crisis.

Sellers have a contractual obligation to run the business in an “ordinary” manner during the time between when a deal is agreed and closing. The so-called ordinary course covenant forces sellers to seek the consent of the buyer to make any significant changes to the way the business is run, regardless of any external events.

Mr Laster said Anbang failed to seek consent from Mirae before taking drastic actions in response to the pandemic, such as furloughing staff and closing properties included in its Strategic Hotels & Resorts portfolio.

Read more here

Manila and Davao to remain under lockdown through Christmas

John Reed in Bangkok

Metropolitan Manila and Davao City are to remain under semi-lockdown through the Christmas holiday after Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte decided to extend a general community quarantine in place in the country’s two largest urban areas.

Mr Duterte announced the decision in a speech late on Monday after the Philippines’ coronavirus task force recommended placing the two cities, along with six other provinces and cities, under lockdown for the whole month of December.

Christmas is the biggest holiday in the mostly Roman Catholic country, and the rest of the Philippines will be under modified general community quarantine, a looser form of lockdown, for the rest of the month.

Manila has been under GCQ since June, and Davao reverted to the measures, under which public transport and some businesses are allowed to operate, after a rise in new Covid-19 cases last month.

The Philippines, which was the first country after China to report a death from the coronavirus, has reported nearly 432,000 cases of the disease and 8,392 deaths to date, the second-highest caseload in south-east Asia after Indonesia.

New York hospitals told to brace for coronavirus surge

Joshua Chaffin, Peter Wells and Matthew Rocco in New York

Hospitals in New York state have been ordered to expand capacity and prepare for staff shortages as public health officials get ready for the US coronavirus surge to accelerate after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Governor Andrew Cuomo on Monday warned that the state was entering “a new phase in the war against Covid” as he announced the hospital measures as part of a five-point plan to contain coronavirus through the winter, until there could be a mass distribution of vaccines — possibly in the spring or summer, he predicted.

If necessary, the state would impose another broad “pause” on all but essential businesses, as it did in the depths of the first wave of the pandemic, Mr Cuomo said. In the meantime, he said he hoped for a more targeted approach guided by increased testing — for example, keeping public schools open as long as infections remained low.

As in other US states, New York has seen a resurgence of Covid-19 cases in recent weeks, prompting officials to reimpose some of the social and business restrictions put in place during the pandemic’s early months.

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Chinese factory activity hits 10-year high in November

Tom Mitchell in Singapore

China’s economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic accelerated sharply last month, according to a manufacturing survey released on Tuesday.

The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for November was 54.9, its highest reading since late 2010.

The Caixin PMI, which captures activity and sentiment in China’s private sector, was released a day after the Chinese government’s official PMI recorded its highest reading in three years. China’s PMIs track month-on-month changes in activity, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.

Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin, attributed Tuesday’s spike to strong domestic demand, as well as increasing orders for Chinese exports.

Last month’s manufacturing recovery occurred despite a series of defaults by large state-owned enterprises, which has spooked China’s bond markets over recent weeks.

The defaults highlight the stark divergence between the country’s exporters and many large industrial groups that are struggling to manage their high debt levels.

Hong Kong Disneyland to close as infections surge

Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Disneyland said it will close from Wednesday until further notice as the number of coronavirus infections surged in the Chinese territory.

The closure is the theme park’s third this year, after first shutting its doors in January.

The city is experiencing a fourth-wave of infections triggered in part by a cluster of more than 500 cases linked to dance venues.

The territory’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, on Monday announced further restrictions on restaurants and a tip line for people to report violations of social-distancing guidelines.

The park said on its Facebook page that the closure was required by the government.

Hong Kong Disneyland is celebrating its 15th anniversary in the city, which it marked last month with the opening of a new castle.

The park has been operating on a reduced schedule and is normally closed on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Ocean Park, a theme park with a zoo on Hong Kong island, also said it would close until further notice.

Japanese manufacturing conditions climb to 15-month high

Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong

Business conditions for Japanese manufacturers showed signs of improvement in November even as the pandemic worsened in the country, according to a private survey.

The au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 49 in November, up from 48.7 in the previous month. While that reading showed the sector is still contracting, it is edging closer to the 50-point level marking expansion.

The reading was the highest since August 2019 as output and new orders declined at a slower pace.

However, manufacturers reported weak demand as a result of the pandemic and a surge in coronavirus infections.

Exports slowed as regions such as Europe reimposed lockdown measures to limit the spread of coronavirus.

"The Japanese manufacturing sector continued to edge towards more stable operating conditions in November,” said Usamah Bhatti, economist at IHS Markit. “Yet, concern remains that weaknesses caused by the Covid-19 pandemic persisted as both output and new orders both fell for the 23rd month in a row.“

IHS Markit estimates that Japanese industrial production will grow by 7.3 per cent in 2021, but noted that this is from a lower base and will “not fully recover the output lost to the pandemic”.

US Covid-19 hospitalisations top 96,000

Peter Wells in New York

The number of coronavirus hospitalisations in the US topped 96,000, with nearly half of all states reporting their highest levels of the pandemic.

There were 96,039 people in US hospitals with coronavirus, according to Covid Tracking Project data on Monday, up from 93,265 on Sunday and compared with 85,870 on Monday last week.

The number of hospitalisations has more than doubled since the end of October, and has risen 36 times in the past 37 days, with figures on November 27 — just after Thanksgiving — marking the most recent daily decline.

A total of 23 states on Monday reported their highest level of hospitalisations of the pandemic, the highest proportion of states since early April, according to a Financial Times analysis of Covid Tracking Project data.

Concerned about a repeat of the strains on their hospital systems experienced earlier in the pandemic, the governors of New York and California separately announced that hospital demand and capacity would be added to the important metrics that guide the states' responses to containing outbreaks.

States reported a further 147,074 new coronavirus cases on Monday and 1,136 deaths.

Those figures are down from seven-day averages of 158,214 and 1,428, respectively.

Monday data tend to be lower than other days of the week due to weekend delays in reporting, but figures have additionally been affected by last week's Thanksgiving holiday. A record 193,805 cases were reported on November 27.

Joe Biden announces team to steer US economy through Covid crisis

James Politi in Washington

Joe Biden, the US president-elect, on Monday announced an economic team that sought to balance experienced Democratic policymakers who will be well-received by markets and business with more progressive economists.

The nominees included Janet Yellen, the former Fed chair, as Treasury secretary, and Neera Tanden, a former senior aide to Hillary Clinton and president of the Center for American Progress think-tank, as budget director. Wally Adeyemo, the president of the Obama Foundation and a former international economic official, was tapped to be deputy Treasury secretary.

Combined with the expected selection of Brian Deese, a BlackRock executive, to be director of the National Economic Council, the picks signalled Mr Biden’s preference for pragmatic centre-left policymakers in his effort to spur the US recovery amid the pandemic shock, at a time when his ambitions will be limited by a closely divided Congress.

However, Mr Biden also chose a trio of progressive economists — spearheaded by Cecilia Rouse of Princeton University — to lead the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, which effectively serves as the president’s internal think-tank on economic matters. Ms Rouse will be flanked by Jared Bernstein, Mr Biden’s former chief economist when he was vice-president, and Heather Boushey, an economist specialising in income inequality.

“This is the team that will deliver immediate economic relief for the American people during this economic crisis and help us build our economy back better than ever,” Mr Biden said in a statement.

Read more here

Korean factory gauge surges to 9-year high despite latest virus waves

Edward White and Kang Buseong

South Korea’s export-led economic rebound picked up pace in November, new data shows, despite new coronavirus waves threatening recoveries across Europe, the US and parts of Asia.

An industry gauge of South Korean factories, which returned to growth for the first time this year in October, last month hit its highest level since February 2011.

The IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.9 in November from 51.2 the month prior. The 50-point level separates expansion from contraction.

Usamah Bhatti, an economist at IHS Markit, said both output and new orders grew further, and manufacturers reported a significantly optimistic outlook for activity for the year ahead.

“Both output and new orders rose further in the latest survey period as manufacturers reported more stable operating conditions and the release of pent-up demand ... Amid pressure on capacity, businesses signalled a stabilisation in staffing levels, ending a year-and-a-half of continuous job shedding,” he said.

Separately, trade ministry data showed the value of shipments from Asia’s fourth-biggest economy rose 4 per cent to $45.8bn in November.

The data comes as South Korean health officials grapple with their third serious wave of coronavirus infections this year, prompting the tightening social distancing rules across the country.

Despite the concerns for public health from the latest outbreak, robust demand for South Korea’s technology exports, particularly computer chips, offset the economic hit from when the virus battered the global economy earlier in the year and soft domestic spending.

Also on Tuesday, South Korea revised upward its third-quarter GDP growth.

Asia’s fourth-biggest economy grew 2.1 per cent from the second quarter, officials in Seoul also said, an improvement from the 1.9 per cent growth reported in October. The increase marked the sharpest quarterly GDP rise in a decade.

Last week, the Bank of Korea raised its GDP outlook for 2020 to a 1.1 per cent contraction, from an earlier estimate of a 1.3 per cent decline.

Scott Atlas resigns his position as Trump's Covid adviser

Kiran Stacey in Washington

Scott Atlas, Donald Trump’s controversial coronavirus adviser, has resigned his position at the White House, a White House official has confirmed.

Dr Atlas, the neuroradiologist who became the US president’s most trusted source of advice on how to deal with the disease, had angered many public health experts by arguing against restrictions designed to slow the spread of the disease.

His resignation was first reported by Fox News, which published what the channel said was Dr Atlas’s resignation letter.

According to the letter, Dr Atlas said: “More than anything, my advice was always focused on minimising all the harms from both the pandemic and the structural policies themselves, especially to the working class and the poor.”

Asia-Pacific stocks gain as new month begins

Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong

Asia-Pacific equities rose at the start of the month, despite a weak lead after investors took profits following a bumper November.

In Japan, the Topix added 0.5 per cent, the Kospi in Seoul was up 1.3 per cent and the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia rose 0.7 per cent.

Global stocks retreated on Monday as investors took some of their profits following the best month in decades thanks to optimism over Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs. The S&P 500 fell 0.5 per cent on the day, but recorded an almost 11 per cent jump for November.

Attention is trained on Jerome Powell,the Federal Reserve chairman, for pointers on the US economy when he appears in front of the Senate banking committee on Tuesday and Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures were up 0.5 per cent.

California ICU beds could run out before before Christmas, Newsom warns

Peter Wells in New York

California Governor Gavin Newsom said hospital capacity and demand would become a more important factor in determining restriction levels for counties and that a worsening of these metrics could result in the potential introduction of a stay-at-home order.

Mr Newsom said that without any intervention that meaningfully changes current trends, the state’s number of hospitalisations could double or triple within the next month, and that statewide demand for beds in hospital intensive care units is projected to have outstripped supply by Christmas Eve.

Hospital bed, ICU and medical staff capacity would be added to other metrics currently used to determine the colour-coded system that governs levels of economic restrictions in California’s counties, Mr Newsom said during a teleconference on Monday afternoon.

Fifty-one of the state’s 58 counties, covering more than 95 per cent of the state’s nearly 40m residents, are in the purple tier that permits only essential businesses to open.

About 8,578 people are in California hospitals with Covid-19, state data on Monday showed, just 242 patients shy of the record it set during the summer surge in July, and up from just over 3,200 at the end of October.

Officials estimate about 12 per cent of new coronavirus cases in California end up as hospitalisations about two weeks later.

The state health department today revealed 14,034 new Covid-19 cases and 20 deaths.

Over the past week, the state has averaged 14,657 new infections a day, a record, and well above the previous peak in July of 9,881 a day, Mr Newsom said.

“If these trends continue, California will need to take drastic action, including a potential stay-at-home order for regions with concerning hospitalisation or ICU capacity,” a slide from Mr Newsom’s presentation said.

Earlier today, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo revealed similar steps, adding hospital capacity to the metrics governing levels of economic activity in “micro-clusters”.

He also warned that a “hospitalisation crisis” could result in potentially reintroducing the “pause” on non-essential activity that was put in place during spring when New York was among the hardest-hit states during the early stage of the pandemic.

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New York Governor Andrew Cuomo laid out his “winter plan” for dealing with coronavirus over the coming months including setting out conditions that could potentially result in a repeat of a *“pause”*on economic activity the state undertook earlier this year.

The UK government will soon begin increasing community testing of asymptomatic patients in England, the country’s health secretary has announced. In a televised Downing Street press briefing, Matt Hancock said the Liverpool City region was an example of the success of community testing, and would be moved into tier 2 once the new measures come into effect on Wednesday.

The Transportation Security Administration screened more than 1m passengers in US airports on Sunday in the busiest travel day since March. The agency said 1.18m travellers went through security checkpoints on the final day of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, typically a busy day for US airports. It was the most since March 16, when there were 1.26m screenings.

At least six people have been killed during a prison riot in Sri Lanka as inmates protested about a rise in Covid-19 infections inside the South Asian country's jails.

The Italian government has approved a further support package worth €8bn for businesses struggling during the coronavirus pandemic.

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